Academic Report Sample
Soviet War and Mujahedeen in Afghanistan:
Soviet was took
place in Afghanistan in 1979-89, here mujahedeen were opposing the government
and its policies. Different parties try to solve this quell between them but
none of them succeed in their efforts. Then on 25 Dec, 1979 USSR invaded
Afghanistan to control the situation and appointed Babrak Karmal as president
of this country. More than 102,000 troops were brought by U.S army here to
control the situation of war and establish effective control inside and outside
the Kabul. In order to oppose the Soviet installation by USSR, mujahedeen plan
to build a secular state where they can live according to their will and
polices. These mujahedeen were not just limited to Afghanistan at that time, there
fellows were scattered all around the world, especially in neighbor countries. Some
thoughts say that leaders of mujahedeen were living in Pakistan and were also
backed by them and some other countries. To overcome this problem, U.S started
his military assistance program in Afghanistan while at the same time Pakistan provided
training and some financial aid to U.S army. All these efforts failed later on
and in 1988 USA governor withdrawal troops from Afghanistan after losing 14,500
of them. Effects of this war were massive when we took notice about afghan
people, and millions of them migrated to neighbor countries including Iran and
Pakistan. Consensus of 1989 reported that Soviet war in Afghanistan resulted
death of 1 million civilians there.
In the post
soviet period different groups of mujahedeen also fought with each other in
order to consolidate power, but only same names appear as prominent on in the
end. These names were Burhanuddin Rabbani, Mohammad Najibullah, Ahmed Shah
Massoud, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Abdul Rashid Dostum. Mujahedeen rule was begin by
Dostum and his Uzbek militia in 1922, during this period of time power was also
transferred to 51 person body for period of two months so that grounds of
Afghanistan can be brought back to Islam and it becomes an Islamic state once
again. After that in Dec 1992, Rabbani become president and did not notice any of
activities of Taliban in this country. He ruled this country for almost 4 years
but progress was not monitored regarding situation or stabilization of this
country.
Origin of Taliban in Afghanistan:
During fight
with mujahedeen a new group emerged to oppose the government and royal kingdom
of Afghanistan, this was the group of Taliban. This group was started by Mullah
Muhammad Omar, he was part of a strong tribe in Ghilzai and member of Pashtun
family. He comes forward with a pure goal to establish Islam in this state but
the why that he chose was not ethical as it becomes a reason of death for millions
of civilians later on. In 1994, first movement by Taliban was made and they
succeed in it as well. Under this movement they peacefully capture Kandahar and
later on they moved to Ghazni and Herat in 1995. The strongest decision made by
them was in 1996 to capture Kabul, it did not seem tough to them after victory
of peaceful capture of other three regions.
Afterwards he
started a new regime and named Afghanistan as the Islamic Emirate of
Afghanistan. They adopted Shari'a Law and banded all other rules previously followed,
it was attempted to improve security conditions there. Among civilians,
especially women and girls suffer badly because of Taliban’s fundamental
beliefs and rules which later on contributed in economic deprivation as well. U.S
army once again started their movement to control this situation and formed
Northern Alliance which is Rabbani as their center of all activities. This step
limited the activities of Taliban till 1997 but in 1998, this group comes forward
once again with Mazar-i-Sharif, who established dominance of Taliban over 90
percent of the country. He was the one under whose commands were to find refuge
in Uzbekistan few days before attacks on world trade center.
Al-Qaeda and its growth:
Al-Qaeda begins
in late 1990’s and is working actively till date. With passage of time this
network is growing bigger and bigger. This network started working actively
after getting inspired by terrorism at time of Soviet war in Afghanistan. Notice
of this group was taken at first by U.S army and government and they tried hard
to dismiss these troops from afghan territories. At that time CIA launched a
program named as Operation Cyclone; it was channeled through Pakistan so that
afghan mujahedeen surrender and agree to live peacefully.
Ideology
followed by Al-Qaeda from time of its beginning was development of Islamic movement
and with that revival of Islam in this region. Many scholars debated that
Al-Qaeda is not a part of Muslim world as they have adopted war as their way to
achieve their goal, while Islam is a religion of peace and terror is not a part
of this religion. They also argue on the fact that members of Al-Qaeda are not
preaching the right thing, as they have lack of knowledge about Shari'a laws
and meaning of real jihad. To clear
their purpose and goal leader of this group conducted a media campaign in mid
of 1990’s, this was just the beginning for them to expose themselves.
As afterwards
they carry on this way of communication and faxed their statements, audio
recordings and some video appearance with some internet posts. Analysts concluded
that these efforts were made by Al-Qaeda to elicit psychological reactions of
global audience, especially people in Islamic world and Muslims in U.S or
Europe. Messages by this group were always signaled to provide information
about their new attacks and operations. To understand ideology of Leader of
this group Usama Bin Ladin, his statements were considered as primary source.
Founding principles of Al-Qaeda:
During period of
Soviet war Bin Laden experienced role of logistical coordinator and a financier
for people living in Afghanistan and Arab countries, as he provided them with
help and support in their believes of setting Islamic principles in this
country. From that time Al-Qaeda is
associated with building common Islamic principles which were named as jihad
later on. After the Iraq invasion of Kuwait, Bin laden expressed his opposition
towards military forces of Saudi Arabia; its reason was their support to U.S
army and other Non-Muslim troops. In 1991, gulf war causes defensive jihad by
Bin Ladin and this group raise voices against all non-Muslim forces.
At that time
first call was made for jihad to secure withdrawal of U.S troops at all cost.
Bin laden was upset due to criticism of royal family of Saudi Arabia. This
declaration also cited massacres in other neighbor countries and also raised
war in those countries. Worst step taken by Al-Qaeda was attack of September
11, 2001 on America. This attack was counted as second worst attacks of this
country as it was marked most violent day with 2,793 deaths. Besides lives of
civilians, financial loss of $100 billion was recorded here. This loss put
negative influence on economy in terms of lower profits, at some points it is
also said that more than $2 trillion were loss in profits.
Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
On September 12,
2001, U.S Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage made a series of unilateral
demands on Pakistan. The head of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI)
General Mahmood Ahmad pleaded with him to reconsider, stating, “You have to
understand history.” “No,” Armitage responded, “History begins today.”
Present day
relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan are serious matter of concern,
especially after killing laden in Pakistan by U.S armed forces. This leave an
unsolvable question on modern state system of Pakistan and everyone is now
looking at Pakistan to get information about next movement of Al-Qaeda and its
new leaders. Critics say that Pakistan is supporting Al-Qaeda in their mission
and helping them financially as well. But if we take a look at past then we can
easily identify that geographically, ethologically and historically context of
poor relations has been monitored between these two regions.
Beginning of
these clashes started in September 1947, when Afghanistan raises as only nation
who oppose establishment of Pakistan. This debate was very first reason of
damaging relations between these neighbor countries. After this Afghanistan the
fellow Muslim country postures added complexities for Pakistan's leaders, and
they face isolation and destruction in this state. When British transfered the
power to Pakistani leader Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah, at that time once
again afghan government encouraged armed tribal incursion in tribal areas of
Pakistan. This effort was made to weaken defense calculus on Eastern borders of
Pakistan which were linked with India after partition of subcontinent.
But Pakistan
forget these thing and later on once again Pakistan supported Afghanistan by
allowing it to use port of Karachi for purpose of link with international
markets, but here as well they breach Pakistan and start looking for alternate
trade outlets. Iran make offer to Afghanistan and they accepted it as well,
this new relation turned Pakistan in full fledged economic blockade. All these
targets were made by afghan government to damage Pakistan internally as well as
in international markets. Its internal crises, international isolation, foreign
policies and military weakness were goal of afghan government, but they could
not succeed in their efforts at all.
Period of Sardar
Muhammad Daud Khan was good time for Pakistan, as this prime minister consider
religion and international constrains and opportunities vital than other
things. He worked hard so that strategic benefits can be brought back to this
region, meanwhile soviet war took place where china and Pakistan come closer to
each other as they were agreed on same policies at that time. In 1955 when East
Pakistan separated from this region and other remaining provinces were
converted into single unit, at that time as well Afghanistan tried to play some
cheap tactics. They claimed Pashtun areas to be a part of afghan region but
this claim drew more visible lines around Pakistani borders for them.
Transition in the Afghanistan-Pakistan war:
Interests of U.S
are always linked with Pakistan, as they are providing them a way to enter
Afghanistan and with that NATO supply from boarders of Pakistan to Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s aim is just to emerge as stable, pluralistic, modernized and
prosperous country for its neighbors and within its boarder as well. Due to
nuclear danger in south Asia now risk taking investments are also being made in
Pakistan. U.S policy in Pakistan is providing little stability to Pakistan but
it is also graving a threat between afghan and Pakistani boarders. Different
Pakistani colonies are affecting on situation between Afghanistan and Pakistan like
Pakistani military and security services; the country's civilian political
leadership; its business communities and civil society; and the Pakistani
public.
U.S and ISAF has
put emphasis on peace negotiation so that peacefully talks can be made with
Taliban in Qatar. US has also promised that they will not consider Taliban as
an enemy onwards, rather they will work in peace with them and reject all the
violence in Afghanistan as well. For this purpose it was important to discuss
everything aspect with Pakistani government as well, as everything that is
happening in Afghanistan is influencing Pakistan as well. NATO supplies are
made through Pakistani borders and it is effecting relations of these neighbor countries.
The worst part
of Afghanistan begin neighbor of Pakistan was residence of Usama Bin laden in
this region which come in front of all after US special force raid in Pakistan.
This was a moment of great disguise for Pakistan, as this region was supporting
U.S armed forces from very beginning against Taliban and mujahedeen. At present
Pakistan military is showing willingness towards U.S army to use resources of
Pakistan like supply routes and air space. This favor has been made just
because Pakistanis want Taliban out of this country. This is forced because of suicidal
attacks by Taliban in major cities of Pakistan. There are many signs to show
that Pakistan will seek to exploit US and ISAF withdrawal, and will consider
peace negotiation as major factor to get depth in Afghanistan and grow stronger
than India.
Prospects for Stability in Pakistan:
Today European
alliance forces are facing a critical issue more like a strategic challenge,
and to tackle with this issue they must define some goals that they want to
achieve in association with Pakistan. In this discussion important is issue of
Afghanistan and impacts that Pakistan is facing just because of this region. As
there is risk that afghan troops can damage security of Pakistani residents
more than ever, therefore this country is now agreed in efforts of helping
Afghanistan move towards transition. Pakistan is becoming a disruptive force
for afghan people now instead of constructive, therefore there is no chance the
Afghanistan can establish stable relations with Pakistan once again. If we take
a look on benefits that U.S government can have from Pakistan in this war is
that this nuclear power is a center of gravity between this war and it can
prove a wild card for winning this war. Therefore U.S government is not willing
to lose this golden opportunity.
Outcomes of
Afghanistan situations in 2014 are expected to be controlled after completing
all operations. This will secure pashtun areas in Pakistan as well and central
government in Kabul will also get some benefits due to civil conflicts. For
this era when war would come an end, it is expected that it will drift further
towards leadership crisis produces an new leadership that actually begins to
react to Pakistan’s internal problems rather than focusing on its own power,
living in denial when it can, and exporting blame when it must.
Clear and Future Danger to Pakistan from Afghanistan:
When come to
talk about threats that Pakistan is facing then list can goes on and on, as
they have raise higher today and with passage of time they are increasing
rapidly. As both countries are facing problems raised by Taliban so there are
possibilities that one day Taliban from both sides of borders will join hand
and its worst affects would be faced by Pakistani government and nation. Ashley
Tellis has discussed all these dangerous in his article Pakistan’s Impending
Defeat in Afghanistan. He has beautifully divided all considerations of a
Pakistani in four parts.
He writes
"The most likely consequence of the security transition is a protracted
conflict between the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban that continues
long after coalition forces have ceased active combat operations."
"The more
serious, though still middling, outcome of the security transition could be a
de facto partition of Afghanistan arising from a steady increase in Taliban
control that is limited to the Pashtun-majority areas in the southern and
eastern provinces."
"The last
and most dangerous potential outcome of the security transition in Afghanistan
would be the progressive Taliban takeover of the south and east en route to a
larger attempt to control all of Afghanistan."
These three
dangers are mentioned by this so intelligently that none of us reject them, with
that he further talk about outcome that Pakistan will face due to these
dangers.
According to him
"A cataclysmic conflict of this sort would be the worst kind of disaster
for Pakistan... It would not just provoke major refugee flows... It would also integrate the violence and
instability currently persisting along Pakistan’s western frontier into a vast
hinterland that opens up even greater opportunities for violent blowback into
Pakistan itself...it would end up embroiling Pakistan in an open-ended proxy
war with every one of its neighbors."
What withdrawal will lead to us?
We have
discussed every detail about Afghanistan and how it is affecting region of its
neighbor countries including Pakistan. Afghan war indeed brings many dangers
towards Pakistan including Taliban which are now dangerous part of this
country, but afghan army is not too strong that it can defeat Pakistani armed
forces. Pakistani borders are sealed and without permission of Pakistani
government it is impossible to move in this country form any of the neighbor
country. There are rare chances that afghan army can defeat it but if in any rare
case this thing took place, then it would be tough for them to handle this
country as its political, religious and cultural values are completely
different from Afghanistan today. Although this is an Islamic state but with
passage of time technology has infused in different sectors. Military itself is
so powerful in Pakistan, that none of the army can fight with them easily. It
is now a nuclear power; therefore it is not easy to withdraw the army from its
borders easily.
It is
surprisingly difficult to get a meaningful estimate of the total cost of the
Afghan conflict, total spending on Afghan forces and total spending on various
forms of aid. More data are available on US efforts – which have dominated
military and aid spending, but even these data present serious problems in
reliability, consistency, and definition. Moreover, it is only since FY2012
that the US provided an integrated request for funding for the war as part of
its annual budget request. The data for
the period before FY2009 are accurate pictures of the Department of Defense
request, but there is only a CRS estimate of total spending the previous years.
This report
addresses the cost to the US of the Afghan War from FY2000-FY2013. It provides
estimates of total cost, cost to the Department of Defense, and aid costs to
State, USAID, and other federal agencies. It also reports on the total cost of
international aid when this takes the form of integrated aid to Afghan
development and Afghan forces – a fraction of total aid spending. No reliable
estimate exists of total international aid to Afghanistan, since so much of
this aid has been direct and has not passed through the Afghan Central
government.
The resulting
figures provide important insights for “transition.” They show the scale of
past US efforts, how the aid has been allocated, and the differences between
the total aid appropriated during the course of the war, the amount obligated
(around 60% of the amount appropriated), and the amount actually disbursed
(around 45% of the appropriation). (Katzman, 2012, Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance,
Security, and U.S. Policy)
Several points are clear:
·
The vast majority of aid went to
the Afghan security forces and not development.
·
Most aid was very erratic in
annual levels of effort, making it extremely difficult to plan the most
effective use of the money and ensuring that program continuity was not
possible.
·
The bulk of the total spending
and aid has been allocated since FY2009, and came after the insurgency had
reached high levels. It is a clear case of too much, too late.
·
The surge in aid spending creates
the irony that the maximum actual cash flow –“disbursements” – is only
occurring now that transition is in place and major cuts are coming between
2012 and 2014.
·
The data only tell the amount of
money made available of a total category basis. They do not tell how much money
actually reach Afghanistan, they do not tie spending to any clear objectives,
they did not reflect any effective contracting and auditing system, and there
are no measures of effectiveness or success.
This latter set
of points is critical. No one who has served in government, or observed it,
will ever claim that the ability to allocate and spend money is a measure of
effectiveness. After more than a decade of war, this is in practice the total
limit of Department of Defense, State Department and USAID reporting. The only
exceptions are limited audit coverage by the Special Inspector General for
Afghanistan (SIGAR), reports by the GAO, and some audits by the inspector
generals of given Departments. Not only did the money come far too late to
prevent the rise of a major insurgency, when it did come, it came in areas
where there were no effective overall planning,
Economic Effects on US Due to War
Cordesman: Going
in Transition: US Military and Aid Spending: FY2002-2013 5/11/12 management,
and contacting systems. No adequate fiscal controls and no real measures of
effectiveness. The system virtually invited waste, fraud, and abuse. It is
important to note that reforms have taken place in many areas of contracting,
and there is now better auditing. The Afghan government has also promised
important reforms in its control of spending and efforts to reduce corruption.
The fact
remains, however, that if the CRS and OMB figures for FY2001-FY2013 that follow
are totaled for all direct spending on the war, they reach $641.7 billion, of
which $198.2 billion – or over 30% – will be spent in FY2012 and FY2013. This
is an incredible amount of money to have spent with so few controls, so few
plans, so little auditing, and almost no credible measures of effectiveness. It
is also clear that the end effect has been to sharply raise the threshold of
corruption in Afghanistan, to make transition planning far more difficult, and
raise the risk that sudden funding cuts will undermine the Afghan government’s
ability to maintain a viable economy and effective security forces. (Codesman,2012, The U.S. Cost of The
Afghan)
·
Anthony H. Cordesman, 2012, THE
U.S. COST OF THE AFGHAN WAR: FY2002-FY2013
·
Kenneth Katzman, September 21,
2012, Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy
·
Siddiqi, Shibil, Afghanistan‐Pakistan Relations: History and Geopolitics in a Regional
and International Context
·
Armitage, Richard, 2006, Return
of the Taliban
·
Blanchard, Christopher M.,2007,
Al Qaeda: Statements and Evolving Ideology
·
Riedel, Bruce, 2010, The Search
for Al Qaeda: Its Leadership, Ideology, and Future
·
Monitors, Conflict,2012, Conflict
History:The Taliban 1994–2001
·
Maley, William, 2002, THE DECLINE
OF STATE LEGITIMACY:1964-78
·
Ahmadi, Homayun,
2009Afghanistan's human and physical geography
US-Afghan end game 2014 and implications for Pakistan
Table
of content:
1.
History and background of Afghanistan
2.
Civil
wars in Afghanistan
3.
Soviet War and Mujahedeen in Afghanistan
4.
Origin of Taliban in Afghanistan
5.
Al-Qaeda and its growth
6.
Founding principles of Al-Qaeda
7.
Pakistan-Afghanistan relations
8.
Transition in the Afghanistan-Pakistan
war
9.
Prospects for Stability in Pakistan
10.
Clear and Future Danger to Pakistan from
Afghanistan
11.
What withdrawal will lead to us
12.
American Policies against Afghanistan
13.
September 11 Attacks and Operation
Enduring Freedom
14.
U.S. and International Civilian Policy
Structure
15.
USAID and Other Investments
16. Afghanistan:
Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy
17. Rebuilding
Afghanistan – US Involvements Result
18.
Economic Effects on US Due to War
19.
Reference
History and background of Afghanistan:
Culture, Ethics, Language,
Government and Policies in Afghanistan:
Everything in afghanistan is influenced by history and previous
rulers. As Arabs were the most powerful rulers here and they spread inslamic
religion in this country therefore cutlure introduced by them is still followed
by people in Afghanistan. In different times different ways were adopted to govern this
country and its people including republic, autocracy and communist etc, but
rules followed here are based on Islamic legislations always.
People in Afghanistan were collection of different
regions in beginning; therefore language was becoming a problem for them at
that time. But after arrival of Arab rulers in this region, combination of
languages excluded from here and some common languages got rise here. Most of
the people here learn Persian and Pashto, and these two languages are counted
as two official languages in Afghanistan today. In different provinces there,
still Balochi, Pashai and Hindi are used as mother language.
When we talk about ethical groups founded in
Afghanistan from decades, then Pashtun, Uzbek, Aimak, Bloch, Hindu, Hazar and
Tajik appears as most powerful and prominent groups. These groups were not part
of Afghanistan in history, but are associated with different areas of this
region till date. The most common reason of popularity of these groups is working
of people in form of tribes, which is followed today as well. (Ahmadi, Afghanistan's human
and physical geography 2009)
Civil
wars in Afghanistan:
The road to war in Afghanistan was not really straight;
this was actually results of different modern literatures. Contribution to it
was made by government and some eternal forces, and this simple and peaceful
protest turned out as war in this country. Problem started here with low rate
of payments which were made to government employees in Afghanistan, this leads
the country towards financial corruption and it spread all over the country in
limited period of time. Its bad consequences were not just noticed by lay men
there, but military officers in Afghanistan as well face some deadly
consequences. This thing influenced young Pushtuns to search for new ways to
get financial stability and close all the connection of royal families.
Nation of Afghanistan realised there weakness most in
1922 when they were stuck in famine and state was unable to help them out in
this situation. Ministry of agriculture in Kabul humiliated afghan people at
that time instead of supporting them. (Maley 2002)
This
differentiation between people of different states becomes a reason of failure
for new democracy in this country. It was very surprising for Zahir Shah who
was prime minister there at that time, as he never expects that nation which
stands against his policies in order to get their right. To overcome this
situation at that time, Daoud becomes the leader of this country and fought for
stabile and accurate way for about five years. He was a man of great qualities
and was not manipulative like former prime minister; he was also part of royal
family and take keen interest in betterment of this country and its situations.
Changes brought by Daoud were not noticeable at that time by general afghan
people but he was making improvements gradually which was striking for former
ministers. Besides his noticeable efforts in politics, people there easily
forget him and remove him from this post. In this period this country built
largest prison of Asia. Three tactics lead this man to victory but his death in
April 1978 ended everything there and closes all the doors for peace as well. (Maley
2002)
Soviet War and Mujahedeen in Afghanistan:
Soviet was took
place in Afghanistan in 1979-89, here mujahedeen were opposing the government
and its policies. Different parties try to solve this quell between them but
none of them succeed in their efforts. Then on 25 Dec, 1979 USSR invaded
Afghanistan to control the situation and appointed Babrak Karmal as president
of this country. More than 102,000 troops were brought by U.S army here to
control the situation of war and establish effective control inside and outside
the Kabul. In order to oppose the Soviet installation by USSR, mujahedeen plan
to build a secular state where they can live according to their will and
polices. These mujahedeen were not just limited to Afghanistan at that time, there
fellows were scattered all around the world, especially in neighbor countries. Some
thoughts say that leaders of mujahedeen were living in Pakistan and were also
backed by them and some other countries. To overcome this problem, U.S started
his military assistance program in Afghanistan while at the same time Pakistan provided
training and some financial aid to U.S army. All these efforts failed later on
and in 1988 USA governor withdrawal troops from Afghanistan after losing 14,500
of them. Effects of this war were massive when we took notice about afghan
people, and millions of them migrated to neighbor countries including Iran and
Pakistan. Consensus of 1989 reported that Soviet war in Afghanistan resulted
death of 1 million civilians there. (Monitors 2012)
In the post
soviet period different groups of mujahedeen also fought with each other in
order to consolidate power, but only same names appear as prominent on in the
end. These names were Burhanuddin Rabbani, Mohammad Najibullah, Ahmed Shah
Massoud, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Abdul Rashid Dostum. Mujahedeen rule was begin by
Dostum and his Uzbek militia in 1922, during this period of time power was also
transferred to 51 person body for period of two months so that grounds of
Afghanistan can be brought back to Islam and it becomes an Islamic state once
again. After that in Dec 1992, Rabbani become president and did not notice any of
activities of Taliban in this country. He ruled this country for almost 4 years
but progress was not monitored regarding situation or stabilization of this
country. (Monitors 2012)
Origin of Taliban in Afghanistan:
During fight
with mujahedeen a new group emerged to oppose the government and royal kingdom
of Afghanistan, this was the group of Taliban. This group was started by Mullah
Muhammad Omar, he was part of a strong tribe in Ghilzai and member of Pashtun
family. He comes forward with a pure goal to establish Islam in this state but
the why that he chose was not ethical as it becomes a reason of death for millions
of civilians later on. In 1994, first movement by Taliban was made and they
succeed in it as well. Under this movement they peacefully capture Kandahar and
later on they moved to Ghazni and Herat in 1995. The strongest decision made by
them was in 1996 to capture Kabul, it did not seem tough to them after victory
of peaceful capture of other three regions.
Afterwards he
started a new regime and named Afghanistan as the Islamic Emirate of
Afghanistan. They adopted Shari'a Law and banded all other rules previously followed,
it was attempted to improve security conditions there. Among civilians,
especially women and girls suffer badly because of Taliban’s fundamental
beliefs and rules which later on contributed in economic deprivation as well. U.S
army once again started their movement to control this situation and formed
Northern Alliance which is Rabbani as their center of all activities. This step
limited the activities of Taliban till 1997 but in 1998, this group comes forward
once again with Mazar-i-Sharif, who established dominance of Taliban over 90
percent of the country. He was the one under whose commands were to find refuge
in Uzbekistan few days before attacks on world trade center. (Monitors 2012)
Al-Qaeda and its growth:
Al-Qaeda begins
in late 1990’s and is working actively till date. With passage of time this
network is growing bigger and bigger. This network started working actively
after getting inspired by terrorism at time of Soviet war in Afghanistan. Notice
of this group was taken at first by U.S army and government and they tried hard
to dismiss these troops from afghan territories. At that time CIA launched a
program named as Operation Cyclone; it was channeled through Pakistan so that
afghan mujahedeen surrender and agree to live peacefully. (Riedel 2010)
Ideology
followed by Al-Qaeda from time of its beginning was development of Islamic movement
and with that revival of Islam in this region. Many scholars debated that
Al-Qaeda is not a part of Muslim world as they have adopted war as their way to
achieve their goal, while Islam is a religion of peace and terror is not a part
of this religion. They also argue on the fact that members of Al-Qaeda are not
preaching the right thing, as they have lack of knowledge about Shari'a laws
and meaning of real jihad. To clear
their purpose and goal leader of this group conducted a media campaign in mid
of 1990’s, this was just the beginning for them to expose themselves.
As afterwards
they carry on this way of communication and faxed their statements, audio
recordings and some video appearance with some internet posts. Analysts concluded
that these efforts were made by Al-Qaeda to elicit psychological reactions of
global audience, especially people in Islamic world and Muslims in U.S or
Europe. Messages by this group were always signaled to provide information
about their new attacks and operations. To understand ideology of Leader of
this group Usama Bin Ladin, his statements were considered as primary source. (Blanchard 2007)
Founding principles of Al-Qaeda:
During period of
Soviet war Bin Laden experienced role of logistical coordinator and a financier
for people living in Afghanistan and Arab countries, as he provided them with
help and support in their believes of setting Islamic principles in this
country. From that time Al-Qaeda is
associated with building common Islamic principles which were named as jihad
later on. After the Iraq invasion of Kuwait, Bin laden expressed his opposition
towards military forces of Saudi Arabia; its reason was their support to U.S
army and other Non-Muslim troops. In 1991, gulf war causes defensive jihad by
Bin Ladin and this group raise voices against all non-Muslim forces.
At that time
first call was made for jihad to secure withdrawal of U.S troops at all cost.
Bin laden was upset due to criticism of royal family of Saudi Arabia. This
declaration also cited massacres in other neighbor countries and also raised
war in those countries. Worst step taken by Al-Qaeda was attack of September
11, 2001 on America. This attack was counted as second worst attacks of this
country as it was marked most violent day with 2,793 deaths. Besides lives of
civilians, financial loss of $100 billion was recorded here. This loss put
negative influence on economy in terms of lower profits, at some points it is
also said that more than $2 trillion were loss in profits. (Blanchard 2007)
Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
On September 12,
2001, U.S Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage made a series of unilateral
demands on Pakistan. The head of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI)
General Mahmood Ahmad pleaded with him to reconsider, stating, “You have to
understand history.” “No,” Armitage responded, “History begins today.” (Armitage 2006)
Present day
relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan are serious matter of concern,
especially after killing laden in Pakistan by U.S armed forces. This leave an
unsolvable question on modern state system of Pakistan and everyone is now
looking at Pakistan to get information about next movement of Al-Qaeda and its
new leaders. Critics say that Pakistan is supporting Al-Qaeda in their mission
and helping them financially as well. But if we take a look at past then we can
easily identify that geographically, ethologically and historically context of
poor relations has been monitored between these two regions.
Beginning of
these clashes started in September 1947, when Afghanistan raises as only nation
who oppose establishment of Pakistan. This debate was very first reason of
damaging relations between these neighbor countries. After this Afghanistan the
fellow Muslim country postures added complexities for Pakistan's leaders, and
they face isolation and destruction in this state. When British transfered the
power to Pakistani leader Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah, at that time once
again afghan government encouraged armed tribal incursion in tribal areas of
Pakistan. This effort was made to weaken defense calculus on Eastern borders of
Pakistan which were linked with India after partition of subcontinent.
But Pakistan
forget these thing and later on once again Pakistan supported Afghanistan by
allowing it to use port of Karachi for purpose of link with international
markets, but here as well they breach Pakistan and start looking for alternate
trade outlets. Iran make offer to Afghanistan and they accepted it as well,
this new relation turned Pakistan in full fledged economic blockade. All these
targets were made by afghan government to damage Pakistan internally as well as
in international markets. Its internal crises, international isolation, foreign
policies and military weakness were goal of afghan government, but they could
not succeed in their efforts at all.
Period of Sardar
Muhammad Daud Khan was good time for Pakistan, as this prime minister consider
religion and international constrains and opportunities vital than other
things. He worked hard so that strategic benefits can be brought back to this
region, meanwhile soviet war took place where china and Pakistan come closer to
each other as they were agreed on same policies at that time. In 1955 when East
Pakistan separated from this region and other remaining provinces were
converted into single unit, at that time as well Afghanistan tried to play some
cheap tactics. They claimed Pashtun areas to be a part of afghan region but
this claim drew more visible lines around Pakistani borders for them. (Siddiqi n.d.)
Transition in the Afghanistan-Pakistan war:
Interests of U.S
are always linked with Pakistan, as they are providing them a way to enter
Afghanistan and with that NATO supply from boarders of Pakistan to Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s aim is just to emerge as stable, pluralistic, modernized and
prosperous country for its neighbors and within its boarder as well. Due to
nuclear danger in south Asia now risk taking investments are also being made in
Pakistan. U.S policy in Pakistan is providing little stability to Pakistan but
it is also graving a threat between afghan and Pakistani boarders. Different
Pakistani colonies are affecting on situation between Afghanistan and Pakistan like
Pakistani military and security services; the country's civilian political
leadership; its business communities and civil society; and the Pakistani
public. (Coll 2009)
U.S and ISAF has
put emphasis on peace negotiation so that peacefully talks can be made with
Taliban in Qatar. US has also promised that they will not consider Taliban as
an enemy onwards, rather they will work in peace with them and reject all the
violence in Afghanistan as well. For this purpose it was important to discuss
everything aspect with Pakistani government as well, as everything that is
happening in Afghanistan is influencing Pakistan as well. NATO supplies are
made through Pakistani borders and it is effecting relations of these neighbor countries.
Figure 11: Progress in Afghan War
The worst part
of Afghanistan begin neighbor of Pakistan was residence of Usama Bin laden in
this region which come in front of all after US special force raid in Pakistan.
This was a moment of great disguise for Pakistan, as this region was supporting
U.S armed forces from very beginning against Taliban and mujahedeen. At present
Pakistan military is showing willingness towards U.S army to use resources of
Pakistan like supply routes and air space. This favor has been made just
because Pakistanis want Taliban out of this country. This is forced because of suicidal
attacks by Taliban in major cities of Pakistan. There are many signs to show
that Pakistan will seek to exploit US and ISAF withdrawal, and will consider
peace negotiation as major factor to get depth in Afghanistan and grow stronger
than India. (Cordesman 2012)
Prospects for Stability in Pakistan:
Today European
alliance forces are facing a critical issue more like a strategic challenge,
and to tackle with this issue they must define some goals that they want to
achieve in association with Pakistan. In this discussion important is issue of
Afghanistan and impacts that Pakistan is facing just because of this region. As
there is risk that afghan troops can damage security of Pakistani residents
more than ever, therefore this country is now agreed in efforts of helping
Afghanistan move towards transition. Pakistan is becoming a disruptive force
for afghan people now instead of constructive, therefore there is no chance the
Afghanistan can establish stable relations with Pakistan once again. If we take
a look on benefits that U.S government can have from Pakistan in this war is
that this nuclear power is a center of gravity between this war and it can
prove a wild card for winning this war. Therefore U.S government is not willing
to lose this golden opportunity.
Outcomes of
Afghanistan situations in 2014 are expected to be controlled after completing
all operations. This will secure pashtun areas in Pakistan as well and central
government in Kabul will also get some benefits due to civil conflicts. For
this era when war would come an end, it is expected that it will drift further
towards leadership crisis produces an new leadership that actually begins to
react to Pakistan’s internal problems rather than focusing on its own power,
living in denial when it can, and exporting blame when it must. (Cordesman 2012)
Clear and Future Danger to Pakistan from Afghanistan:
When come to
talk about threats that Pakistan is facing then list can goes on and on, as
they have raise higher today and with passage of time they are increasing
rapidly. As both countries are facing problems raised by Taliban so there are
possibilities that one day Taliban from both sides of borders will join hand
and its worst affects would be faced by Pakistani government and nation. Ashley
Tellis has discussed all these dangerous in his article Pakistan’s Impending
Defeat in Afghanistan. He has beautifully divided all considerations of a
Pakistani in four parts.
He writes
"The most likely consequence of the security transition is a protracted
conflict between the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban that continues
long after coalition forces have ceased active combat operations."
"The more
serious, though still middling, outcome of the security transition could be a
de facto partition of Afghanistan arising from a steady increase in Taliban
control that is limited to the Pashtun-majority areas in the southern and
eastern provinces."
"The last
and most dangerous potential outcome of the security transition in Afghanistan
would be the progressive Taliban takeover of the south and east en route to a
larger attempt to control all of Afghanistan."
These three
dangers are mentioned by this so intelligently that none of us reject them, with
that he further talk about outcome that Pakistan will face due to these
dangers.
According to him
"A cataclysmic conflict of this sort would be the worst kind of disaster
for Pakistan... It would not just provoke major refugee flows... It would also integrate the violence and
instability currently persisting along Pakistan’s western frontier into a vast
hinterland that opens up even greater opportunities for violent blowback into
Pakistan itself...it would end up embroiling Pakistan in an open-ended proxy
war with every one of its neighbors." (Tellis 2012)
What withdrawal will lead to us?
We have
discussed every detail about Afghanistan and how it is affecting region of its
neighbor countries including Pakistan. Afghan war indeed brings many dangers
towards Pakistan including Taliban which are now dangerous part of this
country, but afghan army is not too strong that it can defeat Pakistani armed
forces. Pakistani borders are sealed and without permission of Pakistani
government it is impossible to move in this country form any of the neighbor
country. There are rare chances that afghan army can defeat it but if in any rare
case this thing took place, then it would be tough for them to handle this
country as its political, religious and cultural values are completely
different from Afghanistan today. Although this is an Islamic state but with
passage of time technology has infused in different sectors. Military itself is
so powerful in Pakistan, that none of the army can fight with them easily. It
is now a nuclear power; therefore it is not easy to withdraw the army from its
borders easily.
American Policies against Afghanistan
September 11 Attacks and Operation
Enduring Freedom
After
the September 11 attacks, the Bush Administration decided to militarily
overthrow the Taliban when it refused a final U.S. offer to extradite Bin Laden
in order to avoid military action. President Bush articulated a policy that
equated those who harbor terrorists to terrorists Drogin, Bob. “U.S. Had Plan
for Covert Afghan Options Before 9/11.” Los Angeles Times, May 18, 2002. Mujahid
has reconciled with the current Afghan government, and serves as one of the
deputy leaders of the 70-member High Peace Council on political reconciliation.
Some Afghan sources refer to him by the name “Fahim Khan,” or “Marshal Fahim.”
U.S. and International Civilian
Policy Structure
Building
the capacity of the Afghan government, and helping it develop economically, is
primarily, although not exclusively, the purview of U.S. and international
civilian officials and institutions. In line with the prioritization of
Afghanistan policy, in February 2009, the Administration set up the position of
appointed “Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan” (SRAP),
occupied first by Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, reporting to Secretary of State
Clinton. Holbrooke died on December 13, 2010, and that office at the State
Department has been led since February 2011 by Ambassador Marc Grossman.
At
the U.S. Embassy in Kabul, Ambassador Ryan Crocker replaced Karl Eikenberry on
July 25, 2011, but departed in July 2012 and James Cunningham, the “deputy
Ambassador” was named and confirmed by the Senate at the end of that month.
There are separate Ambassador rank officials to manage U.S. economic assistance
issues, to oversee Embassy operations, and to coordinate U.S. rule of law
programs. Under various programs, U.S. civilian and coalition military
personnel are assigned to various Afghan ministries in advisory capacities.
The
U.S. Embassy has progressively expanded its personnel and facilities to
accommodate the additional civilian hires and Foreign Service officers who have
been posted to Afghanistan since 2009 as mentors and advisers to the Afghan
government. U.S. officials say there are more than 1,300 U.S. civilian
officials in Afghanistan up from only about 400 in early 2009. Of these at
least 400 serve outside Kabul to help build governance at the provincial and
district levels. That is up from 67 outside Kabul in 2009.
On
February 7, 2010, in an effort to improve civilian coordination between the
United States, its foreign partners, and the Afghan government, the powers of
the NATO “Senior Civilian Representative” in Afghanistan were enhanced as UK
Ambassador Mark Sedwill took office. This office works not only with U.S.
military officials but with representatives of the embassies of partner
countries and with a special U.N. Assistance Mission-Afghanistan (UNAMA, see
Table 2). In April 2011 Sedwill was replaced by the former British Ambassador
to Iran, Sir Simon Gass. Afghan Ambassador to the United States Sayed Tayib
Jawad served as Ambassador from 2004 until his recall in August 2010. Then Deputy
Foreign Minister Eklil Hakimi replaced him on February 23, 2011. (Katzman, 2012, Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S.
Policy)
USAID and Other Investments
The
tables at the end of this report include U.S. funding for State Department and
USAID operations, including Embassy construction and running the “Embassy air
wing,” a fleet of twin-engine turboprops that ferry U.S. officials and
contractors around Afghanistan. In a significant development attempting to
signal normalization of certain areas of Afghanistan, in June 2010, Deputy
Secretary of State William Burns formally inaugurated a U.S. consulate in
Herat. The State Department spent about $80 million on a facility in
Mazar-e-Sharif that was slated to open as a U.S. consulate in April 2012, but
plans to open the facility have been delayed because of concerns about the
security of the facility. A U.S. consulate there is considered an important
signal of U.S. interest in engagement with the Tajik and Uzbek minorities of
Afghanistan. Alternative locations are being considered, and consulates are
planned for the major cities of Ernesto London.
Afghanistan: Post-Taliban
Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy
In
November 2010 contracts were announced for expansion of the U.S. Embassy ($511
million) and to construct the two consulates ($20 million for each facility).
As discussed below, both cities were in the first tranche of areas to be
transitioned to Afghan control. The United Nations is extensively involved in
Afghan governance and national building, primarily in factional conflict
resolution and coordination of development assistance. The coordinator of U.N.
efforts is the U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). It was headed
during March 2010-December 2011 by Swedish diplomat Staffan de-Mistura,
replacing Norwegian diplomat Kai Eide. Mistura formerly played a similar role
in Iraq. Slovakian diplomat Jan Kubis replaced him in January 2012.
U.N.
Security Council Resolution 1806 of March 20, 2008, expanded UNAMA’s authority
to strengthen cooperation between the international peacekeeping force (ISAF,
see below) and the Afghan government. In concert with the Obama
Administration’s emphasis on Afghan policy, UNAMA is to open offices in as many
of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces as financially and logistically permissible. The
mandate of UNAMA, was renewed for another year on March 22, 2011, by Resolution
1974. As did Resolution 1917 the previous year, Resolution 1974 largely
restated UNAMA’s coordinating role with other high-level representatives in
Afghanistan and election support role, while referring to UNAMA’s role in
facilitating the coming transition to Afghan leadership. UNAMA has always been
involved in local dispute resolution and disarmament of local militias, but its
donor coordination has never materialized because of the large numbers and size
of donor-run projects in Afghanistan. Under a March 2010 compromise with
Karzai, it nominates two international members of the five person Electoral
Complaints Commission (ECC), one fewer than the three it selected under the
prior election law. (Katzman, 2012, Afghanistan:
Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy)
UNAMA
is also playing a growing role in engaging regional actors in Afghan stability.
It was a co-convener of the January 28, 2010, and July 20, 2010, London and
Kabul Conferences, respectively. Along with Turkey, UNAMA chairs a “Regional
Working Group” to enlist regional support for Afghan integration. On donor
coordination, UNAMA is co-chair of the joint Afghan-international community
coordination body called the Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board (JCMB),
and is helping implement the five-year development strategy outlined in a
“London Compact,” (now called the Afghanistan Compact) adopted at the January
31-February 1, 2006, London conference on Afghanistan. The priorities developed
in that document comport with Afghanistan’s own “National Strategy for
Development,” presented on June 12, 2008, in Paris.
The
difficulties in coordinating U.N. with U.S. and NATO efforts were evident in a
2007 proposal to create a new position of “super envoy” that would represent
the United Nations, the European Union, and NATO in Afghanistan. In January
2008, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki Moon tentatively appointed British diplomat
Paddy Ashdown as the “super envoy,” but Karzai rejected the appointment over
concerns about the scope of authority of such an envoy and the issue was
dropped. The NATO senior civilian representative post, discussed above, appears
to represent a step in the direction of improved donor coordination in
Afghanistan and streamlining of the foreign representative structure there.
Afghanistan: Post-Taliban
Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy
Security Policy, 2011-2014
“Transition, and Beyond”
The
Obama Administration policy goal is to prevent Afghanistan from again becoming
a safe haven for global terrorism, but the U.S. criteria for judging
achievement of that goal have generally included the degree to which the Afghan
government and security forces can defend the country, govern effectively, and
develop economically. The U.S. security mission is in the process of changing
from a combat leadership to a mentoring and “overwatch” role by mid-2013.
Still, from 2011 until the completion of the security transition in 2014, the
basic pillars of U.S. and NATO security strategy that have been in place since
2001 remain intact.
---------------------------------------------------
Much of the information in this section is taken from U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), “Report on Progress
Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan,” April 2012.
http://www.defense.gov/news/1230_1231Report.pdf.
Ibid.; Moreau, Ron. “New Leaders for the Taliban.” Newsweek, January 24, 2011.
Much of the information in this section is taken from U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), “Report on Progress
Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan,” April 2012.
http://www.defense.gov/news/1230_1231Report.pdf.
Ibid.; Moreau, Ron. “New Leaders for the Taliban.” Newsweek, January 24, 2011.
Rebuilding Afghanistan – US Involvements
Result
Security
in Afghanistan is challenged by several armed groups, loosely allied with each
other. There has not been agreement about the relative strength of insurgents
in all of the areas where they operate. The top commander in Afghanistan,
General John Allen, told journalists in October 2011 that the numbers of
insurgents may be far fewer than the 25,000 previously assessed. Groups: The
Taliban (“Quetta Shura Taliban”) The core of the insurgency remains the Taliban
movement loyal, for the most part, to Mullah Umar, who led the Taliban regime
during 1996-2001. Heand many of his top advisers reportedly operate from
Pakistan, probably the city of Quetta but possibly also Karachi, thus
accounting for the term usually applied to Umar and his aides: “Quetta Shura
Taliban” (QST). The exact level of Mullah Umar’s control over insurgent ranks
is unclear, and little precise information exists on Mullah Umar’s remaining
inner circle. In recent years, he has lost some of this top aides and
commanders to U.S.-led military action or Pakistan arrests, including Mullah
Dadullah, Mullah Obeidullah Akhund, Mullah Usmani, and Mullah Abdul Ghani
Bradar. In mid-2012, an offshoot of the Taliban has undertaken several major
attacks under the name “Mullah Dadullah Front.” Umar has been making
appointments to replenish the QST leadership ranks. When his top deputy, Mullah
Bradar, was arrested in Pakistan in February 2011, Umar replaced him with
younger and reputedly hardline, anti-compromise leaders Mullah Abdul Qayyum
Zakir, a U.S. detainee in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba until 2007; and Akhtar Mohammad
Mansoor, a logistics expert. (Katzman, 2012, Afghanistan:
Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy)
The
Taliban has several official spokespersons at large, including Qari Yusuf
Ahmadi and Zabiullah Mujahid, and it operates a clandestine radio station,
“Voice of Shariat” and publishes videos. Some experts believe that Umar and his
inner circle blame their past association with Al Qaeda for their loss of
power, and the death of Al Qaeda founder Osama Bin Laden on May 1, 2011, has
perhaps strengthened the arguments of those in the movement advocating distance
from Al Qaeda. And, U.S. officials argue that security successes since 2011 are
causing some Taliban
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